AGP Executive Report

Eritrea at the UCI Road World Championships: Eritrea’s Amanuel Ghebreigzabhier and Natnael Tesfatsion failed to start after visa problems blocked entry to Canada, leaving the team short-handed and triggering UCI fines for the squad. Horn of Africa security: Ethiopia’s renewed Tigray offensive is spreading beyond Tigray, with TPLF-linked forces taking airports and pushing into Afar and Amhara, while Ethiopia’s army chief accuses Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing the rebels—claims Sudan denies. Humanitarian and infrastructure strain: UN and rights groups warn of rising civilian harm as communications disruptions hit Mekelle and parts of Amhara, and displacement in Afar is estimated at 150,000+. Red Sea trade pressure: Analysts link the wider conflict risk to Red Sea chokepoint instability, with Houthi moves around Bab el-Mandeb raising freight and energy-cost concerns for the Djibouti corridor. Eritrea–US sanctions update: Eritrea says the US lifted sanctions under EO 14046, though critics argue the impact is overstated and unresolved issues remain. Business/energy angle: A new Ethiopia–Djibouti fuel pipeline backed by Dangote is pitched as a logistics and energy-security upgrade that could cut costs versus truck transport.

Eritrea-US Trade & Sanctions: The Trump administration lifted US sanctions on Eritrea, including the ruling People’s Front for Democracy and Justice and the Eritrean military, saying the “national emergency” no longer applies; Eritrean officials welcomed the move and cited remedial steps. Water & Local Development: A new dam was inaugurated in Adi-Hawosha (Gala-Nefhi, Central Region), costing about 11 million Nakfa, with 180,000 cubic meters of storage to support potable water and irrigated farming. Regional Security & Trade Routes: Fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray escalated again as a rebel “Alliance for Survival” pushed beyond its core areas; Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing TPLF, while Sudan denied the claim—raising fears of wider instability that could disrupt Ethiopia’s reliance on Djibouti for trade. Red Sea Pressure: Houthi advances around Bab el-Mandeb and control of Perim and Mocha are tightening the Red Sea choke point, threatening freight and oil flows that matter for the Horn’s economy. Maritime Crime: Somalia stepped up coastal anti-piracy patrols as piracy resurged, including operations tied to the Eritrean-flagged vessel Sibu 1.

Red Sea Shipping Shock: The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is back in the spotlight as Houthi forces expand control along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, reportedly taking Perim island and the port city of Mocha—raising fears of fresh disruption to one of the world’s key chokepoints and possible oil-price pressure. Somalia Anti-Piracy Push: Somalia’s Puntland stepped up maritime security as piracy resurges, including patrols targeting pirate hideouts and action tied to the Eritrean-flagged vessel Sibu 1; parliament also approved tougher piracy and kidnapping measures. Ethiopia–TPLF War Spillover: Fighting between Ethiopia’s federal forces and the TPLF is intensifying across Afar and Amhara, with reports of airport seizures, drone strikes on Tigrai TV, internet disruption, and large displacement in Afar. Eritrea Accusations at UNGA: Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea (along with Sudan and Egypt) of backing TPLF, while Sudan rejected the claim as “baseless,” escalating a regional blame game as the UN General Assembly meets. Eritrea Development & Water: Eritrea inaugurated a new dam in Adi-Hawosha (cost ~11 million Nakfa), aimed at potable water supply and irrigated agriculture. US Lifts Eritrea Sanctions: The US lifted sanctions on Eritrea and related entities, a move Eritrean officials welcomed as aligning with “realities on the ground.”

Ethiopia–Eritrea Accusations: Ethiopia’s army chief says Eritrea and Sudan are backing Tigray rebels as clashes intensify across Tigray and spill into Afar and Amhara, with reports of major displacement and rebel advances toward key towns. Humanitarian Alarm: Human rights groups warn civilians face rising risks as fighting disrupts aid and the 2022 peace framework looks increasingly fragile. Media Hit in Mekelle: A drone strike damaged Tigrai TV’s headquarters in Mekelle, knocking the station off air, while rebels press offensives and seize airports. Red Sea Trade Pressure: Analysts link the renewed Ethiopia conflict to wider Horn-of-Africa instability, warning that threats to the Djibouti corridor could raise costs for Ethiopia’s imports and exports. US Sanctions Lifted on Eritrea: The US lifted sanctions on Eritrea, including on the ruling party and military-linked entities, citing changed conditions. Eritrea Development: A new dam in Adi-Hawosha was inaugurated, targeting potable water supply and irrigated agriculture. Maritime Security Update: Puntland forces freed the Eritrean-flagged tanker Sibu 1 after a hijacking, ending a five-week ordeal.

US–Eritrea Relations: The United States lifted sanctions on Eritrea, including measures against Eritrea’s ruling party and military-linked entities, citing that the “national emergency” basis no longer applies—an outcome Eritrean officials welcomed as a corrective step. Water & Agriculture: Eritrea inaugurated a new dam in Adi-Hawosha (Gala-Nefhi), built with public and government support at about 11 million Nakfa, with 180,000 cubic meters of storage to boost potable water and irrigated farming. Red Sea Security & Trade: A wider Red Sea risk picture is sharpening as Houthi pressure and piracy dynamics threaten shipping routes that matter to the Horn, with Ethiopia’s Djibouti corridor exposure highlighted. Ethiopia Conflict Spillover: Renewed fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray—plus reported drone strikes, airport seizures, and internet/phone disruptions—has revived fears of a return to full-scale war and renewed humanitarian strain, with UN officials urging restraint. Maritime Incident: Puntland forces freed the Eritrean-flagged tanker Sibu 1 after a counter-piracy operation, arresting pirates and ending a hijacking that began in August.

Tigray War Returns: Fighting reignited in Ethiopia’s Tigray after the TPLF declared all-out war, with rebels seizing airports and clashes spreading into Afar and Amhara; residents in Mekelle report panic buying and fear of a repeat of the 2020–2022 blockade, while Telecom Disruption: internet and phone services were disrupted and residents scrambled for SIM cards as banking and mobile payments were hit. Red Sea Trade Pressure: With Houthi advances around Bab el-Mandeb raising freight costs for the Djibouti corridor, Ethiopia’s overseas cargo exposure is again in focus, and analysts warn shipping risk could lift landed prices and squeeze export margins. Eritrea’s Regional Role: Commentary and interviews tie Eritrea to the wider Horn dynamics, including claims that renewed conflict could intersect with Red Sea security and regional proxy competition. Maritime Security Win: Puntland forces freed the Eritrean-flagged tanker Sibu 1 after a counter-piracy operation, with the crew safe and pirates taken prisoner. UN Economic/Health Policy: Eritrea’s UN statements emphasized pandemic preparedness and sea-level rise risks, while AfDB support for energy and fertilizer shocks highlights how regional instability can hit food and livelihoods.

Tigray War Returns: Heavy fighting between Ethiopia’s federal forces and Tigray-linked forces has reignited fears the 2022 Pretoria truce is collapsing, with clashes spreading into Afar and Amhara and reports of telecom and internet disruptions that could cut residents off from banking and cashless payments. Alliance for Survival: Ethiopia’s army chief says foreign backers are fueling instability as seven armed groups announce a new coalition aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed—raising the risk of a wider Horn-of-Africa conflict. Red Sea Freight Shock: Houthi control around Perim and Mokha is pushing up Red Sea freight costs and increasing risk for Ethiopia’s Djibouti corridor, with shipping reroutes and higher insurance pressures. Eritrea at the UN: Eritrea’s foreign minister delivered UN statements on pandemic preparedness and on sea-level rise as existential threats, underscoring the country’s Red Sea exposure. Piracy Update (Sibu 1): Puntland forces freed the Eritrean-flagged tanker Sibu 1 after a counter-piracy operation; the 20 crew were unharmed and pirates were taken into custody. Energy/Fertilizer Buffer: AfDB approved up to USD5.1bn in emergency support to help high-vulnerability countries, including Ethiopia, absorb Middle East-driven energy and fertilizer shocks.

Eritrea at the UN: Foreign Minister Osman Saleh used UNGA platforms to push for stronger, equitable pandemic prevention and preparedness, arguing that access to medicines, technology transfer and local production must be protected from IP and unilateral coercive measures. He also backed sea-level rise action, stressing Eritrea’s high exposure through its Red Sea coastline and islands and calling for legal stability and support for coastal adaptation. Red Sea security & regional risk: With fighting flaring in Ethiopia’s Tigray and fears of telecom and supply blockades returning, analysts say Eritrea’s Red Sea position could again matter for wider Horn of Africa stability. Ethiopia conflict spillover: Reports describe heavy clashes across Tigray, Afar and Amhara, plus internet and phone disruptions that threaten cashless banking and daily commerce. Maritime trade: Puntland freed the US-sanctioned, Eritrea-flagged oil tanker Sibu 1 after a two-day anti-piracy operation; the 20 crew were reported safe and pirates were taken prisoner. Diplomacy: Eritrea’s UN engagement also comes as regional talks continue, including Attaf’s meetings with South Africa, Namibia, Nigeria and Eritrea on cooperation in areas like mining and hydrocarbons.

Ethiopia–Tigray Crisis: Internet and phone services were disrupted across northern Ethiopia’s Tigray after renewed clashes since Wednesday, with fears of a repeat of the 2020–2022 blockade. Reuters reports the Tigray People’s Liberation Front ordered Ethio telecom and Safaricom to shut networks, while NetBlocks confirmed the outage; residents in Mekelle and beyond scrambled for SIM cards and supplies as fighting spread into Afar and Amhara. Regional Trade & Security: Analysts warn the renewed offensive could target key land corridors linking Ethiopia to Djibouti, raising risks for Red Sea-linked commerce. Eritrea’s Strategic Role: Commentary highlights that Eritrea’s position near Bab el-Mandeb could again matter for Red Sea security as the US seeks partners amid wider tensions. Maritime Business: Puntland freed the Eritrea-flagged tanker Sibu 1 after a two-day counter-piracy operation; the US-sanctioned vessel had been hijacked in August and is now under Puntland custody. Sports & Cross-Border Focus: Kenya’s Harambee Stars said an allowance dispute is settled as they prepare for an AFCON 2027 qualifier vs Eritrea, with officials also addressing work-permit concerns for the coaching staff.

Ethiopia–Tigray Conflict: Fighting has flared again in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray, with Tigrayan forces seizing airports and launching attacks into Afar and Amhara, while federal forces report repelling assaults and using drones; residents in Mekelle and beyond are stocking up on food and cash as fears grow of a repeat of the 2020–2022 war, including internet disruptions and supply blockades. Regional Spillover Risk: Analysts and international voices warn the renewed offensive could destabilize the Horn of Africa and pull in Eritrea and other neighbors, especially as a new rebel alliance forms to challenge Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Eritrea–Related Diplomacy: Eritrea’s Foreign Minister Osman Saleh addressed UNGA on the right to development, while an EEPA statement criticized the US for lifting targeted sanctions on Eritrea without governance and human-rights conditions. Sports & Economy Link: In Kenya, the Ministry of Sports says it has cleared Harambee Stars allowances and technical staff salaries ahead of the AFCON 2027 qualifier against Eritrea, after earlier training disruptions and payment concerns.

Ethiopia–Tigray Conflict: Fighting has erupted again in northern Ethiopia’s Tigray, with Tigrayan forces declaring a “defensive” war after seizing airports in Mekelle, Axum and Shire and launching attacks into Afar and Amhara; Ethiopia says it is countering an offensive, while residents report hoarding food and cash as flights are suspended to the region, raising fears the 2022 Pretoria peace deal is collapsing. Regional Spillover Risk: Analysts warn the renewed clashes could pull in wider Horn of Africa actors, with renewed attention on Eritrea’s role as allegations of support for armed groups resurface, and concerns that instability could disrupt humanitarian access and Red Sea-linked security. International Reaction: The UK condemned the attacks and urged restraint and a return to African Union-led mediation, while the UN and EU called for de-escalation. Eritrea–Business/Community Note: In Germany, Eritrea’s PFDJ held its annual meeting in Frankfurt, reviewing activities and future programs, including support for the Afambo boarding school project. Sports/Allowances: Kenya’s Sports Ministry confirmed payment of Harambee Stars allowances after a training boycott, ahead of AFCON 2027 qualifiers versus Eritrea.

Ethiopia–Tigray Conflict: Tigray rebels say they are in “full-blown war” with Ethiopia’s federal government after seizing Mekelle’s airport and taking control of other airports, prompting Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights to Mekelle, Shire and Axum—raising fresh fears that the 2022 Pretoria peace deal is collapsing. Regional Spillover & Eritrea: Reuters reports renewed attention on Eritrea as Ethiopia’s officials accuse Asmara of backing the rebel coalition; Eritrea denies involvement, but the risk is that fighting in Tigray, Afar and Amhara could pull in wider Horn of Africa players. Red Sea Pressure on Djibouti: The UN warns Djibouti faces a fast-escalating humanitarian strain as thousands of Yemeni refugees flee Houthi offensives near Bab el-Mandeb, with the chokepoint’s instability also threatening regional trade and costs. Eritrea Sanctions & US Policy: RSADO says the US letting sanctions lapse on Eritrea’s leadership is driven by Red Sea strategy rather than improved rights for Eritrea’s citizens, especially the Red Sea Afar community. Diaspora Politics: An Israeli report says Eritrean opposition group Brigade Nhamedu is building an international diaspora network from a Tel Aviv-area warehouse, seeking political support abroad to challenge President Isaias Afwerki.

Ethiopia–Tigray Air Disruption: Tigrayan forces seized Mekelle’s main airport overnight, prompting Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights to Mekelle, Shire and Axum—an early sign that the 2022 Pretoria peace track is breaking down again. Regional Security & Trade Risk: The renewed fighting in Tigray is unfolding alongside wider Horn of Africa and Red Sea tensions, raising fears of knock-on effects for logistics, freight costs and business continuity. Eritrea–US Sanctions Watch: A Red Sea Afar group (RSADO) warned that the US letting sanctions on Eritrea’s leadership lapse may be driven more by Red Sea strategy than human-rights improvements. Red Sea Shipping Pressure: Separate reporting highlights how Houthi actions around Bab al-Mandeb are disrupting maritime movement, with energy and shipping costs climbing. Diaspora Politics: An Israeli media report says Eritrean opposition activists are using a Tel Aviv warehouse to build an international network aimed at mobilising exiles and seeking political change. Business Note: Sun Peak Metals increased its non-brokered private placement to up to $10m, signaling continued investor demand in the mining sector.

Eritrea–Ethiopia Security: Eritrea is again accused of backing a coalition of Ethiopian armed groups aimed at toppling Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, but analysis says Ethiopia is adapting rather than fracturing, with the “proxy” threat failing to break its core stability. Regional Spillover: A separate report warns the new seven-group alliance could escalate into a wider Horn of Africa crisis, pulling in Egypt’s Nile and Renaissance Dam interests and raising Red Sea stakes. Alliance for Survival: Reuters and others report seven Ethiopian forces—including TPLF and Amhara Fano, plus OLA and groups from Afar, Benishangul-Gumuz and Gumuz—announced an “Alliance for Survival” to install a transitional administration, with Abiy’s camp alleging Eritrean financial backing. Red Sea Risk: With Houthi pressure near Bab el-Mandeb and Mocha/Perim developments, shipping and insurance risks are rising for downstream Horn ports, keeping Djibouti central to Ethiopia’s trade. US Sanctions Move: Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel welcomed the US lifting Eritrea-related sanctions, saying it could reopen investment and trade opportunities. Climate & Food: IGAD warns El Niño-driven rainfall deficits are worsening drought across northern East Africa, including Eritrea, threatening crops and grazing.

US–Eritrea Sanctions Reset: Eritrea’s information minister says Washington has lifted sanctions tied to Eritrea’s military role in Ethiopia, calling it “constructive political goodwill” and a chance to restore investment and trade. Red Sea Trade Pressure: With Houthi advances near Bab el-Mandeb, shipping traffic and risk pricing are tightening again, raising costs for Horn ports and freight—an issue Eritrea is watching closely given its Red Sea geography. Eritrea–Horn Security Link: A new analysis argues Red Sea stability can’t be separated from Horn-of-Africa security, and that Ethiopia’s role in maritime decision-making remains central. Ethiopia Turmoil Spillover: Seven Ethiopian armed groups formed an “Alliance for Survival” to topple Abiy Ahmed, reviving fears of renewed conflict that could further destabilize regional trade routes. Climate Risk to Livelihoods: IGAD warns El Niño-linked dry conditions are worsening drought across northern East Africa, including Eritrea, threatening crops, grazing, and water supplies. Humanitarian/Legal Watch: Amnesty and others report alleged abuses of US deportees in Equatorial Guinea, including an Eritrean man, keeping migration and rights concerns in focus.

US–Eritrea Sanctions Reset: The U.S. lifted sanctions tied to the 2021 national emergency on Eritrea’s military and ruling party, with OFAC removing the Eritrean Defense Forces, PFDJ, Hidri Trust and Red Sea Trading Corporation from its list—an Asmara welcomed as a chance to restore investment and trade opportunities, while officials stress it’s not necessarily a full removal of all restrictions. Red Sea Trade Pressure: As Houthi forces tighten control around Yemen’s Red Sea coastline and Perim (Bab el-Mandeb’s “split” island), shipping risk pricing and freight uncertainty are rising for Horn ports—Djibouti remains Ethiopia’s dominant maritime gateway. Ethiopia Power Shock: Seven Ethiopian armed groups, including TPLF and Amhara’s Fano, formed an “Alliance for Survival” aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, raising renewed border and security concerns that spill into regional commerce. Climate & Food Risk: IGAD warned prolonged rainfall deficits across northern East Africa are worsening drought conditions in Eritrea, Ethiopia, Djibouti and neighbors, threatening crops, pasture and water supplies as El Niño conditions persist. Human Rights & Migration: Amnesty and other groups report alleged abuse and arrests of U.S. deportees in Equatorial Guinea, adding pressure to migration and third-country arrangements that affect Eritreans and the wider region.